The Great Recession

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Author Message David Axt, AIA, CCS, CSI Senior Member Username: david_axt Post Number: 1163 Registered: 03-2002 Posted on Tuesday, February 08, 2011 - 04:57 pm:    What do you supposed will be the lasting impacts of this recession? Lynn Javoroski CSI CCS LEED® AP SCIP Affiliate Senior Member Username: lynn_javoroski Post Number: 1189 Registered: 07-2002 Posted on Tuesday, February 08, 2011 - 05:29 pm:    There will be none - we don't learn from our mistakes. (Unregistered Guest) Unregistered guest Posted on Tuesday, February 08, 2011 - 05:16 pm:    That is an easy one. A bigger generational knowledge gap than ever before since it was never closed from the recession in the early 90s. (Unregistered Guest) Unregistered guest Posted on Tuesday, February 08, 2011 - 05:16 pm:    Fewer specification writers. Anne Whitacre, FCSI CCS Senior Member Username: awhitacre Post Number: 1111 Registered: 07-2002 Posted on Wednesday, February 09, 2011 - 11:54 am:    tell me the lasting impacts of the recession from 1980-1982 and you'll have your answer. John Regener, AIA, CCS, CCCA, CSI, SCIP Senior Member Username: john_regener Post Number: 507 Registered: 04-2002 Posted on Wednesday, February 09, 2011 - 03:24 pm:    One effect will be to weed out those who are less competent ... unless salary is the determining factor in hiring rather than knowledge in construction products. Another effect will be two-fold. Those who are experienced in residential and light commercial construction will be less available ... gone from the practice of architecture. At the same time, those who are hired for heavier commercial and institutional projects may be less experienced in the detailing necessary for such projects, especially if they come from the world of residential and light commercial construction. Thirdly, those firms that survive will probably have done so by being "lean and mean." Those practices will become the norm, for better or worse. These are my observations based on surviving several recessions. George A. Everding, AIA, CSI, CCS, CCCA Senior Member Username: geverding Post Number: 580 Registered: 11-2004 Posted on Thursday, February 10, 2011 - 11:32 am:    When I saw Anne's post, my immediate thought was that the recession of 1980-82 had one long-term result for me personally - I ended up with a wife. But it being the Valentine season, I thought better of posting this, until this morning on our local NPR station... It turns out one effect of the current recession has been the drop in divorce rate - it's down 7% over the last three years, but finally starting to go up again. People who contemplate getting divorced stick together longer in tough times for a variety of reasons - can't sell the house, cheaper to continue living together than apart, etc. - and according to the "expert" quoted on the radio report, sometimes decide to stay together when times get better. On the other hand, there seems to be a "pent up demand" now, especially with the stock market up to twice what it was at its recent low point, so the divorce rate is going up again. At any rate, it was a bit surprising to think about how tough times can effect marital relationships in this way - you'd think the financial stresses would cause more divorces. I don't know about recessions causing marriages - Maureen and I were dirt poor back then and ended up spending most of our pooled resources on a memorable wedding and party. Probably not a good idea in poor economic times. Still, it seems to have worked out - no divorce plans or pent up demand on our part to date. Back on the topic of business, I agree that old guys and gals who know how to put buildings together will always be in demand. Individuals may drop out or change focus during an economic crisis, but in the aggregate and looking over the long term, I don't think there is much of an overall effect. When we look back on these times in a half-decade or so, it's just going to be another notch on the experience belt, and things are going to be essentially the same as they always have been. George A. Everding AIA CSI CCS CCCA Ingersoll Rand Security Technologies St. Louis, MO J. Peter Jordan (Unregistered Guest) Unregistered guest Posted on Thursday, February 10, 2011 - 01:33 pm:    It has been my observation that there are some talented people who wind up being disgusted with the economic yo-yo and decide to do something else. These tend to be entreprenuerial people who see that the economic rewards are not consistent with the risks. The look around and see other fields in which the rewards are consistent with the risks and turn to those. These tend to be people with 5 to 10 years experience who are right on the verge of having enough experience to make worthwhile contributions to a project. When the economy ramps up again, we have to rely on more experienced (and more costly personnel) or on less experienced (and less costly personnel). Guess which group the practice will turn to? Anne Whitacre, FCSI CCS Senior Member Username: awhitacre Post Number: 1115 Registered: 07-2002 Posted on Thursday, February 10, 2011 - 06:50 pm:    actually, one thing I think is going to happen is that a full half-generation of practitioners will very possibly never work for a firm again. I know a few people in their early 60's who were laid off -- and in a more normal economy, they might have happily worked until 66 or 68 or even 70... but now are too expensive and maybe not that interested in going into a new firm, and have enough resources and interests so that starting out new isn't that appealing anymore. I heard that same NPR piece this morning, George. I was one of the ones who did get divorced during that 1980-82 downturn, but because interest rates were around 20%, I never was able to sell my house, and I have it still. By the time the economy improved, keeping it seemed like a good idea. John Bunzick, CCS, CCCA, LEED AP Senior Member Username: bunzick Post Number: 1293 Registered: 03-2002 Posted on Friday, February 11, 2011 - 11:38 am:    Well, some of you may know that I'm done with the corporate world, though not having to do with the recession. I have retired (early) and am going to pursue my photography full-time(ish). I may do a consulting gig or two if it is particularly interesting, but my days of cranking out project specs are over. I think the recession made the pressures to produce higher than ever. Though work load was (is) down, so are fees. Everyone seemed to work more hours under greater pressure, leading to lots of folks feeling burned-out. I think quality of documentation has suffered as well. I like to think that my departure has opened up a space for someone else, but the evidence so far has not borne that out. James M. Sandoz, AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP Senior Member Username: jsandoz Post Number: 85 Registered: 06-2005 Posted on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 - 10:19 am:    I just read the latest posts on the Career Course Change thread before turning to this one. I must say the economy picked a hell of a time to go into a recession. With the advent of BIM, IPD, increasing involvement of construction managers, etc. the role of the architect and specifier is changing drastically and rapidly. I don’t believe the need for a specifier’s technical knowledge will go away, in fact such an individual will become even more important to the team as roles are redefined, but we will have to be nimble and adaptable for many years to come especially in light of the economic situation. I don’t see anything about this business being routine for at least the next decade-and-a-half – about the length of time I expect to work before I retire. Ha! Lynn Javoroski CSI CCS LEED® AP SCIP Affiliate Senior Member Username: lynn_javoroski Post Number: 1201 Registered: 07-2002 Posted on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 - 11:23 am:    James, you used a word I don't think many spec writers are familiar with - "retire"...I know I'm not sure I understand what that means. (Unless you're talking about getting new round rubber devices for my car - I re-tire my car roughly every 60K or so)... Care to enlighten us as to what you mean? Robert W. Johnson Senior Member Username: robert_w_johnson Post Number: 132 Registered: 03-2009 Posted on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 - 02:07 pm:    My kids say that I have redefined retirement. Do I still do consulting? Yes. Do I need to in order to support myself? No, but it does provide money to put in the grandchildren's college funds. Do I want to continue to consult? Yes. Do I work at growing the business? No. Do I worry how much work comes in? No, as long as some comes in and as long as I am not working long hours for long stretches. Also great to be able to do this while living where (I am relatively geographically isolated up in the mountains) and how you want - drawings come by FedEx and email, almost all communication by email and phone, and only provide electronic files as product. The above is not too difficult to do as a consultant. Some, but certainly not all, firms also allow a similar type slowdown period. There can be a life after full-time work and before full-time retirement - I guess you call it semi-retired. Ron Beard CCS Senior Member Username: rm_beard_ccs Post Number: 372 Registered: 10-2002 Posted on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 - 10:23 pm:    Bob: Correct me if I am wrong, but I was lead to believe that you have your son in the business. If that is correct, I see no problem at all. Just keep him busy so you can spend more time fishing. <g> "Fast is good, but accurate is better." .............Wyatt Earp Robert W. Johnson Senior Member Username: robert_w_johnson Post Number: 133 Registered: 03-2009 Posted on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 - 11:04 pm:    Ron No my son has never had an interest in the design/construction industry. He is a St. John's (Santa Fe) graduate with a liberal arts degree working as a project manager for Sandia Laboratories - sort of unusual among all the engineers and scientists there - he uses his broad education well there to think more widely than those with more focused educations. He also doesn't work in nukes; works in anti-terrorism. James M. Sandoz, AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP Senior Member Username: jsandoz Post Number: 87 Registered: 06-2005 Posted on Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 10:15 am:    Lynn, that word comes from the "Dictionary of Wishful Thinking." Actually, I vacillate between imagining that I might retire and that I will be found slumped over my keyboard clutching a copy of the PRM. I don't golf, fish, or hunt or have hobbies such as woodworking to keep me occupied. My wife and I do enjoy traveling and I enjoy reading (a lot) but neither of those things would preclude my continuing to do the work I do now. Even if, as I alluded to in my previous post on this thread, our duties as "specification writers" change drastically in the future I should still be able to carry out the required tasks, given a "normal" degree of physical and mental capability, for perhaps the next 30 years. What I, and I believe many others in our niche, would like to do is cut back on the number of hours a week we engage in our occupation as we approach our seventh and eighth decades. I would still want to discuss projects with the architects and engineers, learn about new materials and products, and solve problems just not for 50-70 hours each week! Would corporate structure allow for this? I believe it could if those who make that decision recognize the importance of our depth of knowledge, experience and expertise. By the way, don't suggest I become an independent consultant. People I know who have done that make a good living but they work even more hours per week than I do now. Perhaps, though, I should talk to Mr. Johnson about my long-range future as a specification writer. He seems to be in a good place with his consultancy. Speaking of redefining retirement, my mother-in-law "retired" from teaching nursing here in Texas over ten years ago. Since then she has spent less time in her own living room than she ever did before. She travels, attends seminars, makes presentations, and still does clinical nursing in economically disadvantaged areas around the state. This summer she has plans to travel to Ethiopia to work in clinics there. It is inappropriate to give her age but she was born during FDR's first administration. Lynn Javoroski CSI CCS LEED® AP SCIP Affiliate Senior Member Username: lynn_javoroski Post Number: 1203 Registered: 07-2002 Posted on Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 10:32 am:    James, I admire your mother-in-law and want to be just like her! I know nothing about nursing, though, so an apprenticeship wouldn't work. I'd love to meet her. I agree with you about cutting back on the office obligations without entirely giving up something I enjoy doing. Fortunately, my company does allow for exactly that and I plan to take advantage of the policy in the near future. Ron Beard CCS Senior Member Username: rm_beard_ccs Post Number: 373 Registered: 10-2002 Posted on Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 10:38 am:    James: It has always seemed to me that the old quip is quite true. "Life is like a roll of toilet paper. The nearer it is to the end, the faster it goes." "Fast is good, but accurate is better." .............Wyatt Earp Lynn Javoroski CSI CCS LEED® AP SCIP Affiliate Senior Member Username: lynn_javoroski Post Number: 1204 Registered: 07-2002 Posted on Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 10:41 am:    And softness versus toughness is an issue... James M. Sandoz, AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP Senior Member Username: jsandoz Post Number: 88 Registered: 06-2005 Posted on Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 10:42 am:    Lynn, the leadership at your firm is truly wise. Whatever I'm doing 25 years from now I hope to be active like my mother-in-law (ok maybe not that active). Life is just too interesting to sit back and let is pass by. Lynn Javoroski CSI CCS LEED® AP SCIP Affiliate Senior Member Username: lynn_javoroski Post Number: 1205 Registered: 07-2002 Posted on Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 10:47 am:    Absolutely! Not only is life too interesting, it's too precious - it's the only one we get, and we simply cannot waste it by being just an observer. We must participate, we must use all that we are and all that we have to experience and enjoy this all-to-fleeting opportunity. I'm reminded of the email that says something about skidding into home plate with a glass of wine in one hand and a chocolate in the other, saying "whew, what a ride". If we don't give it everything we have now, when? ken hercenberg Senior Member Username: khercenberg Post Number: 81 Registered: 12-2006 Posted on Tuesday, March 08, 2011 - 05:43 pm:    I love it when specifiers wax poetic, but back to the initial question. I don't think we will ever see an end to this 'recession.' I am learning to accept it as a change in the way we live. Until now, our world seemed to exist with two primary monetary cultures, one based on the here and now (Main Street) and the other that was purely speculative, having little or nothing to do with reality (Wall Street). Now with the useless gorilla in the room, the Federal Government, siphoning off all available capital and throwing it into the money pit (if the opposite of pro is con, then the opposite of progress is congress), 'lean and mean' is a permanent way of life. Clients have learned what A/Es are able to produce and will continue to expect it at reduced cost. With the onset of what currently passes for BIM (e-SPECS/Revit/BSD/e-i-e-i-o) our production methods are getting faster inherently. Unfortunately, just as with the computerization of specs in the 70's - 90's, we are not working fewer hours but rather putting out more 'product' in less time. Working 50 to 80 hours per week is still the norm but now instead of generating spec packages for a few buildings each month I'm generating packages for a few buildings each week (obviously we generate multiple packages for each project, not final CDs each time). Essentially expectations of quality are considered to be the same as when we had time to do the work right. There is little understanding that learning a project doesn't happen by osmosis, just as specs are not produced by elves (or by Elvis). Those who manage projects no longer work on projects so they don't understand what the process involves. Pushing back may gain a little breathing space but can get a worker branded as not being a team player. With luck, if times get to the point where they are not so lean, we may get that extra breathing room but I'm not hopeful. Still, I'm happy to be busy since I too don't ever see myself retiring. Anne Whitacre, FCSI CCS Senior Member Username: awhitacre Post Number: 1128 Registered: 07-2002 Posted on Thursday, March 10, 2011 - 02:37 pm:    Ken- I don't see anything you've mentioned that hasn't been part of the progress since 1981, which was the last recession that really had a visible impact. Back then we started doing phased projects as Owners were attempting to maximize their dollars due to the 15% plus interest rates; and that was when most of the contractors I knew stopped carrying double digit contingencies, also for the same reason -- high carrying costs. Those changes became permanent, even after interest rates went down. one of the definitions of being professional is not limiting your workload to 40 hours a week, and I'm still not seeing projects come through yet with mandatory overtime, but I see those days coming up again. Most of the firms I know where people took pay cuts have restored salaries again; and I am seeing a lot of hiring for actual production positions. I think most business models are changing but I still see semi-competent people getting jobs, so its not that bad out there anymore. Jim Sliff Senior Member Username: jim_sliff Post Number: 35 Registered: 08-2010 Posted on Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 01:27 am:    I can personally relate to a lasting result. Those like me...58 and formerly in an upper management position with a small, technically-oriented firm (and laid off because of some economic issues - they ran out of money, basically) have found the "gray curtain" is made of impenetrable titanium. I went the one-man independent consultant route focused on a narrow part of the industry because after a hundred or so calls to "get a feel" for the hiring market I realized it was zero. That wasn't true 10-15 years ago...even 5 years ago I probably could have jumped to just about anywhere. All those doors are locked and boarded-up. I'm not the only one who's taken the same consultant route (although others I know are focused on product sales, which is NOT my arena). It might have been easier to become an independent rep and handle product lines, but I left that world years ago and have NO desire to go back. It may be tougher in the short-term, but hopefully things will build and I'll be able to retire as my own employee.